Статья опубликована в рамках: Научного журнала «Студенческий» № 39(83)
Рубрика журнала: Биология
PROBLEMS OF EVALUATING THE ECONOMIC COMPONENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
ПРОБЛЕМЫ ОЦЕНКИ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ СОСТАВЛЯЮЩЕЙ ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ РИСКОВ
Хакимьянова Нэркэс Айдаровна
student, Department of Economics and Management at oil and gas industry Ufa State Petroleum Technical University
The main problems of the economic assessment of environmental risks of oil companies are considered.
Keywords: environmental risks, economic assessment, oil company, ecology.
In recent years, the role and importance of risk management as a tool to reduce losses and increase the efficiency of national economies around the world is constantly growing. The value of this tool is increasing, first of all, due to the growth of the risks themselves, which is a global trend due to the complexity of all areas of functioning of modern society. At present, all large oil refineries are seriously approaching the solution of environmental safety and environmental protection problems. They strive to take care of the natural environment, use the latest technology, carry out the necessary activities and spend significant funds on environmental protection .
Active risk management should be systemic in nature, but currently the greatest attention is paid to financial risks. At the same time, recent developments in the safety declarations of hazardous industrial facilities make it possible to create a system of detailed analysis of exposure to environmental risks of almost the entire production cycle at the pre-investment, investment and operational phases of the development of fuel and energy enterprises. Nevertheless, in the feasibility study documents, calculations of environmental risks are usually absent, although the guidance documents relating to the justification of investment projects, according to environmental impact assessments, require such studies to be carried out . The absence of environmental risk assessments at the pre-project and project stages in the portfolios of general and special risks of companies in the future results in significant losses in the event of social conflicts and liquidation situations leading to catastrophic consequences.
In general, considering the individual stages of risk analysis for energy companies, the following main problems can be distinguished.
1. Risk exposure and hazard identification. One of the key problems of risk analysis is the quantitative assessment of the importance of an adverse factor acting in combination with several factors. In the case of taking into account the totality of factors, difficulties arise in determining the role or degree of importance of one or another factor for the correct calculation of risk, since the proportion with which one factor affects determines its priority. It is also necessary to take into account their emergent properties. In man-made systems, in certain cases (for example, when using technologically new equipment, where its reliability is not known reliably, and the passport has no MTBF, or with scanty statistical information about its failures), it is difficult to build a «fault tree», and sometimes even does not seem possible. The technological complexity of the process subjected to risk analysis also creates difficulties .
2. The application of most methods of calculating risks is impossible in the case of a remote location of the studied object from the residential area. In such an environment, risk analysis regarding public health (this is one of the main factors) becomes meaningless.
Establishing the etiological relationship between the exposure and the actual indicators of the state of public health («dose-response») is difficult in many respects, since there are only ideas about one-component relationships, and for combinations of several factors the only possibility is mechanical summation of risks . This creates methodological uncertainties in assessing quantitative indicators of risks and, accordingly, the size of insurance rates.
3. The obvious problem is the assessment of moral damage in case of any violations in the state of the environment. Perhaps any estimates here will always be perceived as controversial. However, in addition to difficulties with assessing moral damages, there are many difficulties with identifying such clearly defined, but long-term consequences of adverse environmental events, as well as with the valuation of obvious changes in ecosystems as a result of negative impacts . Latent and long-term consequences that occur and will occur in ecosystems and, accordingly, affect human health, are most difficult to assess.
Thus, the problems of assessing environmental and economic risks (and, therefore, insurance events) should be addressed by the formation of new methods for calculating damage. Such techniques should be based on modern approaches to assessing natural resources, modern methods for determining changes in the environment (including long-term effects) with negative impacts on its components; focus not only on harm to human health, but also on other «response reactions» of the environment.
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