FORECASTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRY AND PRODUCTION FOR THE FORMATION OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION

ПРОГНОЗЫ РАЗВИТИЯ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ И ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ДЛЯ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ ИМПОРТОЗАМЕЩЕНИЯ

Голосова Алена Михайловна

студент 2-ого курса, Высшая школа экономики и бизнеса, Российского экономического университета им. Г.В. Плеханова,

РФ, г. Москва

Яворский Станислав Станиславович

студент 2-ого курса, Высшая школа экономики и бизнеса, Российского экономического университета им. Г.В. Плеханова,

РФ, г. Москва

ABSTRACT

This article examines the forecasts for the development of industry and production in Russia in the context of sanctions and the strategy for the formation of import substitution. The article analyzes the impact of sanctions on various industries, explores the factors contributing to import substitution, and offers recommendations for the development of domestic production in order to strengthen the economic stability of the country and reduce dependence on imports.

АННОТАЦИЯ

В данной статье исследуются прогнозы развития промышленности и производства в России в условиях санкций и стратегии формирования импортозамещения. В статье анализируется влияние санкций на различные отрасли, исследуются факторы, способствующие импортозамещению, и предлагаются рекомендации для развития отечественного производства с целью укрепления экономической стабильности страны и снижения зависимости от импорта.

Keywords: development forecasts, industry and production, formation of import substitution, terms of sanctions, economic dependence, industries, technological potential, innovative development, personnel reserve, financial support, government policy, modernization of production, alternative markets and partners, economic stability, reducing dependence on imports.

Ключевые слова: прогнозы развития, промышленность и производство, формирование импортозамещения, условия санкций, экономическая зависимость, отрасли промышленности, технологический потенциал, инновационное развитие, кадровый резерв, финансовая поддержка, государственная политика, модернизация производства, альтернативные рынки и партнеры, экономическая стабильность, снижение зависимости от импорта.

Russia, as one of the world's leading economies, has always made efforts to develop its industrial sector and production. In recent years, special attention has been paid to the import substitution strategy, which is aimed at replacing imported goods with domestic counterparts. In this article, we will consider the forecasts for the development of industry and production in Russia, as well as the measures taken to achieve the goal of import substitution.

The Russian industry has significant potential based on unique natural resources, technological heritage and highly skilled labor resources. As part of the strategy of modernizing the economy, the Russian government is implementing a number of measures aimed at stimulating the development of the industrial sector. These measures include the creation of special economic zones, improvement of infrastructure and reduction of the tax burden.

One of the key areas for achieving import substitution is the development of domestic production and support for domestic producers. The government provides benefits and subsidies to local producers, helping to create competitive domestic products. This helps to reduce dependence on imports and stimulates the growth of domestic industry.

In addition, measures are being taken to promote innovation and technological progress. Investments in research and development, development of new technologies and modern equipment contribute to increasing the efficiency of production and the competitiveness of domestic goods.

It is also worth noting that the government is actively working to improve the business climate and infrastructure to support industry. This includes lowering administrative barriers, simplifying registration and licensing procedures, and developing transport and energy infrastructure.

In general, forecasts for the development of industry and production in Russia remain optimistic. Favorable conditions for the growth of domestic production, government support and an import substitution strategy create a favorable basis for the further development of the country's industrial sector and reduce dependence on imports.

The goal of the import substitution strategy is to reduce dependence on imports and increase the share of domestic production. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to actively develop competitive domestic producers and provide them with support, such as tax incentives, technological assistance and infrastructure development. It is also important to stimulate innovation and cooperation between business, research institutes and universities to develop new technologies and products.

Over the past 15 years, Russia has been actively implementing a policy of import substitution, which has led to a significant reduction in the share of imports in the country's industrial complex. At present, Russia's import usage share is less than 40%, which is significantly lower than in several other major economies, including Canada, the Netherlands, Poland, Australia, and Germany, and roughly equal to the US and India's import share. This indicates significant progress has been made towards strengthening domestic production and reducing dependence on imports.

It is important to note that some sectors of the Russian economy still remain heavily dependent on imports, especially in the face of sanctions restrictions. In the light of the import substitution policy, it is necessary to take into account not only the reduction of dependence on imports, but also the provision of the country's technological sovereignty. It is important to find a balance between the openness of the economy and the reorientation to the markets of friendly countries. Experts emphasize the need to develop strategies that will allow Russia to develop its scientific and technical capabilities and stimulate innovation to create competitive domestic analogues of imported goods.

It is important to note that in the past, the world community has already faced global waves, when many countries actively pursued the policy of developing domestic production. These waves occurred in the 1950s in connection with overcoming post-war problems, as well as after the crisis of 2008-2009, when many countries began to return the production capacities of national economies (reshoring or backshoring).

In Russia, the policy of import substitution has been actively pursued both in Soviet times and since the early 2000s. In response to the crisis, in 2009 the government took a number of measures, including the provision of preferences for domestic producers in certain industries in public procurement, the introduction of protective measures within the framework of the customs tariff policy and other initiatives.

The purpose of these steps was to support domestic production, increase its competitiveness and reduce dependence on imports. They form part of a broad strategy to stimulate the growth of the national economy and create an enabling environment for the development of domestic producers.

Experts make optimistic forecasts regarding the development of industry in Russia. It is expected that in the near future key industries, including engineering, automotive, chemical and oil and gas industries, will continue to develop rapidly. In addition, much attention will be paid to the development of high-tech sectors such as information technology, energy and the medical industry.

It should be noted that most sectors of the Russian economy in recent years have already demonstrated an increase in the share of domestic products. Particularly significant growth was observed in the sectors of mechanical engineering for the food industry, agricultural and heavy engineering.

A high supply of domestic products is noted in the building materials industry (96%), transport engineering (92%) and ferrous metallurgy (90%). However, industries such as the machine tool industry (24%), the pharmaceutical industry (35%) and the children's goods industry (31%) have a low level of provision with domestic products.

These data testify to the achievements of the import substitution policy in various sectors of the Russian economy. However, challenges remain and efforts must be continued to increase the share of domestic production in underserved industries. This will further reduce dependence on imports and create a more sustainable and competitive domestic industry.

In the period from 2015 to 2016, more than twenty import substitution programs were developed and launched, which included a wide range of activities. These programs have identified specific products and technologies that require the replacement of imported analogues with domestic ones. To implement sectoral plans, some government support mechanisms were revised, including subsidizing interest rates on loans.

By subsidizing interest rates on loans, the Russian government was able to stimulate the development of domestic production, the creation of competitive Russian analogues, and a decrease in dependence on imports. This financial support mechanism has proved to be an effective tool to increase the availability of financing for local producers and attract investment in various sectors of the economy.

Such state support measures play an important role in the development of domestic production, contributing to its growth, increasing competitiveness and introducing new technologies. They fit into the overall strategy to reduce dependence on imports and create a stable and self-sufficient economy.

These examples confirm that the strategy of import substitution in certain industries has achieved significant success. For example, by being able to meet the needs of construction projects in quality pipes of national production, it was possible to reduce dependence on imports and develop domestic industry. This is a successful example of the implementation of the import substitution policy and highlights the potential of domestic production in strategically important sectors.

In the consumer sector, one can also observe successful examples of import substitution. Since the departure of the Swedish company IKEA last year, many domestic enterprises that previously produced goods for this international brand have been able to quickly adapt and offer a wide range of products to consumers. For example, in April 2022, the Shuisky Sitzy company launched bed linen under its own YERRNA brand, similar to what was previously sold in IKEA stores.

This case serves as a prime example of the successful adaptation of domestic producers to changes in the market and the possibility of substituting imported goods. Thanks to the flexibility and innovative approach, Russian enterprises were able to offer high-quality analogues of goods previously presented by foreign companies. Such examples demonstrate the potential of the domestic industry and its ability to meet the needs of consumers, even after the departure of major international brands.

According to experts, the level of use of imports in the economy or in individual industries is only one of the factors by which one can judge the degree of dependence on imports. A high level of imports is not in itself a problem, as long as it is a low-risk import and alternatives are available. However, for a number of Russian manufacturing industries, imports are associated with unfriendly countries, which creates certain difficulties.

This situation is especially critical for the pharmaceutical industry, automotive and mechanical engineering. Dependence on imports from unfriendly countries can lead to the risk of supply interruption or high prices for imported components, which negatively affects domestic producers. In light of this, it becomes clear that there is a need to develop an import substitution strategy that would allow developing domestic production capabilities, providing reliable and affordable alternatives to imports, and diversifying supplies in order to reduce dependence on specific countries or regions.

This leads to the need to develop and support domestic manufacturers, stimulate innovation and develop new technologies, and establish cooperation with friendly countries to ensure stable and secure supplies. Such measures will help strengthen Russia's technological independence and reduce the risks associated with dependence on imports in strategically important sectors of the economy.

The implementation of the import substitution policy is closely related to market capacity, which is an important success factor. Russia, as a large country, provides ample opportunities for the development and expansion of business. However, in some cases, even such a vast domestic market may not be sufficient for the effective development of production. Let's look at a few specific examples.

The first example is related to high-tech industries that require significant investment and specialized infrastructure. In such cases, in addition to domestic demand, it is necessary to look for foreign markets and export products.

The second example relates to highly competitive and saturated market industries where local manufacturers must compete with already established foreign brands. In such cases, successful import substitution requires not only competitive products, but also the development of effective marketing strategies and the strengthening of the local brand image.

Another example is related to industries where there are peculiarities in the raw material base or access to the necessary resources. In some cases, the need for imports may be due to the lack or insufficient supply of raw materials or resources within the country. In such situations, the development of alternative sources of raw materials or the search for new mining technologies become important tasks for successful import substitution.

All these examples highlight the importance of conducting market analysis and developing strategies that take into account not only domestic demand, but also export potential, competitive advantages and access to the necessary resources. For a successful import substitution policy, it is necessary to take into account all these factors and develop integrated approaches to the development of manufacturing industries.

It is important to note that Russia lags far behind in the field of semiconductors and microelectronics, which is highly dependent on imported components. This problem hinders the development of high-tech industries such as engineering, communications, transport and the military-industrial complex. Production cost data in 2019 shows that the share of imported electronic components was about 45% in the production of machinery and equipment, and about 60% in the production of computer equipment.

However, in the defense industry, the issue of the price of electronic components is not as acute as in civilian products. This creates a situation where competencies and limited production capacities are being formed that meet the needs of the military-industrial complex, but there are no opportunities for scaling production and reducing the final cost of products.

To solve this problem, there is a limited domestic market, and in the international market there is fierce competition from leading manufacturers who have the best starting conditions. The only way to change this situation is a significant increase in demand for domestic microelectronics products in the domestic market. This requires a large-scale development of the engineering sector, including space and aviation enterprises, as well as the production of a wide range of household appliances. One of the measures proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation to support import substitution in this area is the introduction of through contracts. This initiative provides for the implementation of work on the creation of electronic components and software in accordance with the needs of large customers, which can be domestic companies with more than 1,000 employees, including such large corporations as VTB, Rosseti, Russian Railways and others. The state is ready to compensate up to 50% of the costs for the purchase of electronics and software for these customers. The implementation of such solutions in practice is just beginning to develop, but it can already be noted that the creation of a consortium with large customers, component and software developers is a complex task that can be difficult for private businesses to cope with. Other mechanisms to support import substitution in this industry may also be required.

In the short and medium term, we cannot expect a complete solution to the problem of import dependence. The experience of the automotive industry shows that in the short term only a temporary exclusion of imports is possible, but this can lead to a loss of quality. However, to successfully reduce dependence on imports, a solid foundation must be built. A key element of this framework is the development of domestic production of capital goods. In this context, the connection between import substitution and science is obvious, since it is impossible to restore the sector that creates funds without the participation of Russian science. It is very important to maintain scientific and industrial competencies in areas of scientific and technological development, which may not be relevant for mass production at present, but will become necessary in the future. This applies to such industries as microelectronics, rare earth metals, low-carbon technologies in the energy sector and other promising areas. This requires the expansion of fundamental and applied research in these areas, which will create a long-term potential for import substitution and turn it into an important tool for the structural and technological management of the economy.

The strategy of national economic growth and achievement of economic independence in Russia includes the development of industry and production. One of the main priorities in the country has become the concept of import substitution, aimed at replacing imported goods with domestic counterparts. The success of import substitution depends on several factors. First of all, it is necessary to create a favorable investment environment and improve business conditions for the development of local producers. This includes simplifying bureaucratic procedures, reducing administrative and tax barriers, and providing strong legal and intellectual protection for businesses. The development of scientific and innovation sectors also plays an important role. Support for scientific research, cooperation between scientific institutions, universities and industrial enterprises, as well as investments in new technologies and developments will help create competitive domestic products that can replace imported counterparts.

It is also important to actively develop the human potential of the country, providing high quality education and professional training of specialists in the field of industry and production. The introduction of modern educational programs, the support of technical education and the strengthening of interaction between educational institutions and enterprises will make it possible to form qualified specialists who meet modern technology and production requirements.

The strategy for the development of industry and production in Russia with the aim of import substitution is a long-term direction that requires joint efforts on the part of the government, business and society as a whole. If this strategy is successfully implemented, Russia will be able to strengthen its economic independence, create new jobs, improve the quality and competitiveness of domestic products, and become a significant participant in the world arena.

Список литературы:

1. Данилов-Данильян, В. И., Дружинин, А. Г., Яцкевич, В. В. (ред.) (2020). Стратегии развития российской промышленности. Москва: Институт проблем рынка РАН.
2. Голубев, А. А., Круглова, А. А., Малиновская, А. В. (ред.) (2019). Промышленная политика России в условиях цифровой экономики. Москва: Издательство ГУ ВШЭ.
3. Кузьмин, Е. А. (2020). Промышленная политика и импортозамещение: опыт и перспективы развития России. Проблемы прогнозирования, 1, 76-87.
4. Назаров, В. В. (ред.) (2018). Стратегическое планирование и инновационное развитие промышленности России. Москва: НИУ ВШЭ.
5. Петров, В. В., Сафронов, И. В., Плешков, М. А. (ред.) (2018). Импортозамещение и его эффекты в российской экономике. Москва: Институт проблем рынка РАН.
6. Филиппов, С. Ю. (ред.) (2019). Проблемы развития российской промышленности в условиях глобализации. Москва: Издательство МГУ.
7. Андерсон, К. (2016). Политическая экономия импортозамещающей индустриализации: опыт Латинской Америки. Кембридж: Издательство Кембриджского университета.
8. Болдуин, Р. Э. (2018). Великая конвергенция: информационные технологии и новая глобализация. Кембридж: Издательство Белкнап издательства Гарвардского университета.
9. Кругман, П.Р., Обстфельд, М., и Мелиц, М.Дж. (2018). Международная экономика: теория и политика. Харлоу: Пирсон.
10. Родрик Д. (2018). Откровенный разговор о торговле: идеи для разумной мировой экономики. Принстон: Издательство Принстонского университета.