ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY IMPLEMENTATION IN MODERN ECONOMIC FORECASTING METHODS

АНАЛИЗ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ БЛОКЧЕЙН-ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ В СОВРЕМЕННЫХ МЕТОДАХ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ

Касымбаева Сымбат Бекбосынкызы

магистрант, Международный Университет Информационных Технологий (МУИТ),

Казахстан, г. Алматы

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of blockchain technology on economic forecasting methods. The methodology involves analyzing data from Chinese companies listed on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges to assess the impact of blockchain on reducing systemic risk and improving investment efficiency. The results identified key benefits of blockchain in improving the accuracy and reliability of economic forecasts. The findings emphasize the importance of blockchain technology in modern economic forecasting, especially in the context of improving data efficiency and reliability.

АННОТАЦИЯ

Цель этой статьи - исследовать влияние блокчейн-технологий на методы экономического прогнозирования. Методология включает анализ данных китайских компаний, перечисленных на биржах Шэньчжэня и Шанхая, для оценки влияния блокчейна на снижение системных рисков и повышение инвестиционной эффективности. Результаты выявили ключевые преимущества блокчейна в улучшении точности и надежности экономических прогнозов. Выводы подчеркивают значимость блокчейн-технологий в современном экономическом прогнозировании, особенно в контексте повышения эффективности и надежности данных.

Keywords: blockchain technologies; economic forecasting; systemic risks; investment efficiency; machine learning methods.

Ключевые слова: блокчейн-технологии; экономическое прогнозирование; системные риски; инвестиционная эффективность; методы машинного обучения.

INTRODUCTION

In today's world, where economic systems are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, the accuracy of economic forecasts plays a key role in decision-making both at the level of states and individual enterprises. Accurate forecasts help to anticipate economic fluctuations, adapt to changing market conditions and minimize risks. However, traditional economic forecasting methods often face limitations due to deficiencies in data, processing and interpretation. In this context, blockchain technology represents an innovative approach that promises to radically change the landscape of economic forecasting.

Based on the principles of decentralization, transparency and immutability of data, blockchain offers a new way to collect, store and analyze economic data. Its ability to provide a reliable and immutable information environment makes blockchain an ideal tool to improve the quality of economic data and its analysis. Thus, blockchain not only improves existing methods, but also opens the door to new approaches in economic forecasting, making it more adaptive and responsive to real-world economic conditions. [10, pp. 5]

This paper aims to investigate the potential of blockchain in the context of economic forecasting, assessing its application in different economic scenarios and exploring how it can help overcome the shortcomings of traditional methods. The aim is not only to analyze the current state of the technology and its applications, but also to assess the future prospects and the impact of blockchain on the development of more efficient and accurate economic strategies and policies.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Economic forecasting is a complex and multifaceted process that traditionally depends on a wide range of methods, from statistical analysis to econometric models. These methods play an important role in economic policy making and strategic planning. However, despite their significant advances, existing approaches to economic forecasting often face limitations, including data delays, difficulties in interpretation, and adaptation to rapidly changing market conditions.

Recently, blockchain technology has emerged as an innovative tool offering new opportunities in this area. As a decentralized and reliable accounting system, blockchain offers unique advantages for economic forecasting. The transparency and immutability of blockchain records provide data reliability that is critical for analyzing and forecasting economic trends. [4, pp. 3]

Blockchain can help strengthen economies by offering improved transaction methods and improved analysis of economic trends. In the same way, blockchain technology can be used to improve forecasting by providing greater accuracy and reliability of economic data.

Blockchain's impact on the economy is already beginning to emerge, and its potential for economic forecasting is just beginning to be explored.

Studies from across the economy confirm blockchain's potential to transform traditional approaches to economic forecasting. [6, pp. 4] For example, in the financial sector, blockchain is being used to improve transparency and efficiency of operations, which directly impacts the ability to forecast market trends. In supply chain management, blockchain is helping to create more accurate and timely supply and demand forecasts.

It is also important to note legislative initiatives related to blockchain adoption, such as the development of digital currencies by national banks and the regulation of digital assets. Examples such as the introduction of the digital tenge in Kazakhstan [12, pp. 1] and the planned digital ruble in Russia [11, pp. 1] emphasize the seriousness with which government agencies are taking this technology and its potential to affect economic stability and predictability.

These findings underscore the potential of blockchain in economic forecasting, providing the transparency and reliability of data that is necessary to accurately analyze and predict economic trends. Thus, the inclusion of this information in the literature review will enrich the analysis of the current state and future prospects of using blockchain technology in economic forecasting.

METHODOLOGY

This study utilizes various machine learning and data analytics techniques to evaluate the impact of blockchain technology on economic forecasting. Similar to the approaches presented in the paper [13, pp. 2], the focus is on the following methods:

• Regression Analysis: used to identify relationships between various economic variables and predicted indicators.
• Classification: used to identify various economic trends and categorize data.
• Cluster Analysis: is used to group similar economic data to identify patterns and trends.
• Time Series: Time series analysis is used to forecast future economic performance based on historical data.

The study also takes into account the integration of blockchain technology with these machine learning techniques:

• Leveraging Data from Blockchain Networks: Transaction data, account records and other economic information stored on blockchain networks are used to enrich analysis and improve the accuracy of economic forecasts.
• Transparency and Immutability Analysis: Blockchain provides transparency and immutability of data, allowing for more reliable and accurate analysis.
• Exploring the Impact of Blockchain on Economic Indicators: analyzes how the use of blockchain in various economic sectors affects key economic indicators.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

 Table 1.

Comparative Analysis

This analysis emphasizes that traditional forecasting methods often face accuracy and reliability issues, especially in a rapidly changing economic environment and for long-term forecasts. On the other hand, blockchain-based methods show the promise of improving these aspects through more accurate and reliable data processing. These results can be used to develop better economic strategies and policies based on accurate and reliable data.

Empirical Results

The study analyzed data from 6,323 Chinese companies listed on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges between 2015 and 2018. The study found that with increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, the application of blockchain technology can help companies reduce systemic risk and improve investment efficiency. These findings were confirmed by analyzing annual reports, news reports, data from search engines and prospectuses. [10, pp. 3]

The results of the study emphasize the importance of blockchain technology in improving economic forecasts. The application of blockchain facilitates more accurate and reliable data processing, which is important for reducing risk and improving investment efficiency. These findings can be used to develop better economic strategies and policies based on accurate and reliable data.

Empirical evidence confirms that blockchain technologies have significant potential in optimizing economic forecasting and can serve as an important tool for managing economic risks and improving the efficiency of corporate investments.

CONCLUSION

Analyses and empirical evidence show that traditional economic forecasting methods are often inaccurate due to high uncertainty and optimistic bias errors. Whereas blockchain technologies offer improved accuracy and reliability, promising more sophisticated and accurate predictive models. Their integration can significantly improve economic strategies and policies by providing new approaches to risk management and investment. The need for innovation in forecasting is emphasized, especially in light of the limitations of traditional methods and the increasing complexity of economic systems.

The study found that blockchain technology has significant potential to improve economic forecasting. Their application can lead to more accurate, reliable and transparent economic models. In the future, it is important to continue to explore the opportunities and limitations of blockchain in economic analysis and forecasting, and to explore new ways to integrate it with other technologies and methods. This will contribute to the development of more efficient and adaptive economic systems that can respond to the challenges of the modern world.

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