TRANSITION TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION: BICYCLE COMMUTING IN ALMATY CITY, KAZAKHSTAN

ABSTRACT

Environmental problems at both the global and local level are driving the need for a shift away from transport systems that are heavily reliant on fossil fuels. In cities, bicycles are increasingly being viewed as a key means of achieving this shift, even in the cities of emerging economies such as Almaty, Kazakhstan. This paper explores the changes taking place in Almaty’s transport system, using Geels and Schot’s (2007) multi-level perspective on transitions in societies as a theoretical framework. A review of pertinent literature revealed how cycling is still considered rather niche in Almaty; however, pressure from a range of factors such as health and environmental concerns and the need for greater urban mobility are motivating the city to make changes. The ‘Master Plan’ was devised to enable the transition towards a more environmentally friendly city, and cycling is become increasingly more popular.   

Keywords: green entrepreneurship, sustainable development, sustainable transport, bicycle, sustainable city.

In 2015, 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) were developed in order to “make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe and sustainable” [2]. The same year, over half of the global population lived in cities, and this increases over time. When the urban population grows, so does the amount of land occupied by cities and this has a knock-on effect on the local and global environment [1].

With this in mind, cities can play a key role in developing a more sustainable environment for citizens, for example by cutting the amount of fossil fuel reliant transportation systems and replacing them with greener options. Transport that depends on fossil fuels is a massive contributor to climate change, as well as to noise and air pollution in the local area [3].  

The Republic of Kazakhstan is one of the 195 signatory countries [2] that have made their commitment to a low-carbon future known. Domestically, Kazakhstan is taking actions towards reducing CO2 across all sectors of its economy. In addition, not only is the Republic taking and leading these actions, but also other big cities of the country are trying to create new ways for sustainable development in their regions.

Cities are areas of great potential, but also with a great urgency for transport transitions. Firstly, this is because environmental conditions negatively affect people’s health at the local level and secondly, there is a lot of potential to replace cars with more sustainable means of transportation over short distances. “Transitions are transformation processes in which existing structures, institutions, culture and practices are broken down and new ones are established” [5]. Therefore, cities have more interest in – and huge potential for – transferring over to more sustainable ways of working.

Almaty, the financial capital of Kazakhstan, is one of those. The city has almost two million residents and currently, Almaty is among the top 10 most polluted cities around the world, with 80% of the city’s CO2 coming from transportation. According to local authorities, more than 500,000 automobiles and other vehicles move around the city on a daily basis [6].

The local government has been trying to establish new ways to reduce CO2 emissions, such as adding bicycle lanes and more natural-gas-runner buses on streets. However, these measurements seem to be insufficient for local people, and the worst part of this is that there have been cases where some residents have moved out of the city because of negative air quality. It is a proven fact that negative air pollution increases lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases which have life-threatening consequences [7]. Therefore, reducing CO2 emissions is one of the main issues on local authorities’ agenda.

People in developed countries are enhancing the popularity of electric vehicles. The main reasons people purchase this type of sustainable transport are that they see environmental benefits, they can afford to buy electric vehicles, and also governments are making policies that give benefits to those using sustainable transport. The cost of electric cars varies from $35,000 to $103,000 and the top selling Tesla Model 3 exceeds the average new gasoline by 21% [8]. The average salary of the general public of Almaty is around $500 monthly, which makes it difficult to transfer over to electric cars on any large scale. It is obvious that the local government should find other alternative ways to reduce CO2 emissions in the city. When it comes to public transportation, the local government has been investing in this sphere in order to reduce gas emissions, which will be explained in more detail in later chapters.

Studies from Denmark tell us that for every kilometre cycled, society gets a net profit of 23 cents, while each driven kilometre harms society by 16 cents. Therefore, investment in cycling is considered a modern and intelligent move [9]. In Copenhagen, the most bicycle-friendly city, 62% of the population commutes to work, university and schools by cycling. Copenhagen is well-known for its cycling policy and infrastructure around the world [5]. When it comes to Almaty city, less than 1% of residents cycle to their destinations and the lack of infrastructure and supporting policy for cycling are the main reasons holding back the enhancement of cycling in the city [11]. Green transportation is vitally important for the city, so therefore bicycle commuting is one of the new ways to reduce CO2 in the city.

It is clear that we need changes in our way of using transports in Almaty. Cycling is considered as “‘niche innovation’ of the transport system, therefore in this paper MLP (Multi-level Perspective) Framework is taken as transition theory in order to analyse the present cycling system provides insights into the trends seen currently, and how these trends affect Almaty’s transportation system as a whole.

Figure 1.  Illustration of the multi-stage concept of transition Source:  [5]

There are three levels to the MLP, namely niches (the micro level), regime (the meso level), and landscape (the macro level). As Geels and Kemp (2012) explain, the sociotechnical regime is a collection of rules or grammar that is used by everyone involved in a particular sociotechnical system. The regime level tends to be the most stable because actors, institutions, technologies, and beliefs/values depend heavily on one another [5].

The MLP framework will be applied to transportation in order to identify the stabilising and destabilising factors, with more close attention being paid to cycling in Almaty. In addition, the existing barriers that hold back bike development need to be examined and understood. Further, this research sets out the role of local government and how it can mobilise and influence cycling transition in the city. Therefore, semi-structured interview approaches have been chosen.

A cycling system can be considered a niche-innovation in developing big cities. As illustrated in Figure 3.1, the cycling system has several elements. In order to analyse each of these elements, secondary data sources will be used. However, a method is needed that determines which pieces of information relate to specific factors. Therefore, operationalisation questions were developed regarding the sociotechnical configuration of the cycling system in Almaty. Table 1.1. provides the questions that identify the elements of the cycling system.

Table 1. 

Operationalisation of Cycling System in Almaty

As a financial centre of  Kazakhstan, Almaty feels any national level economic changes first. Overall, the oil and gas sector is strategically important for the economy of Kazakhstan, as the majority of its income comes from exporting oil and gas to foreign countries.

The devaluation in 2015 was the result of the transition of the Kazakh tenge to a floating exchange rate, which was intended to increase the volume of Kazakhstani exports, as well as reduce the cost of maintaining the national currency. With economic decline and decrease in GDP growth from 16.1% in 2017 to 5.6% in 2019, and increasing levels of unemployment, many people considered shifting from using private cars to cheaper modes of transportation such as public transport and cycling (World Bank, 2020).

In 2019, oil production had increased by a third compared to two years before. This allowed the oil industry to contribute much more to Kazakhstan’s GDP, climbing from 13.6% to 14.4%. Tax revenues were also increased during this period, however by 2020 the cost of oil had reduced by 70%. This was further impacted by the global COVID-19 pandemic which has resulted in significantly lower levels of industrial production and, consequently, demand for oil [16]. Oil pricescoupled with the coronavirus pandemic have had a negative effect not only for the ‘financial centre’, but all over Kazakhstan. In Almaty, COVID-19 affected the job market negatively, for example, the total number of employed people decreased by 727,000. Another 200,000 people switched to remote working. As a result, approximately 300,000 people were temporarily left without income (Inform Buro, 2020). Obviously, people without an income will consider cheaper transport options.

Almaty allocated 148 million tenge for the development of measures to limit the movement of vehicles in the region and a strategy for the development of bicycle infrastructure under the Master Plan.

At the time of writing,the DUM’s official website announcedthe development of new Strategy documentation. The Strategy is designed to identify ways to reduce harmful emissions from transport and improve road safety. Two main aspects must be addressedby the company appointed to develop this Strategydocument regarding the city’s transportation: firstly, measures to restrict the movement of vehicles in the region of Almaty, and further, to develop a strategy for the enhancement of cycling infrastructure.

The following should be considered when developing the strategy regarding bicycles:

• Bicycle and micro mobility as a connecting element between all modes of transport;

• Construction of a connected network of cycling routes and integration of infrastructure with the agglomeration;

• Integration and elimination of conflicts with pedestrian infrastructure;

• User acquisition strategies (by age and group) and educational initiatives;

• Infrastructure and user safety, and the impact of speed in the city;

• Development of sharing services;

• Anti-theft and vandalism measures;

• Development of logistics using bicycles (Kazinform, 2020).

From this it can be clearly seen that private automobiles are no longera priority compared to cycling and other types of micro mobility modes of transportation, which will be widely supported going forward.

In the city of Almaty, the cycling system is still in its early stages. The main aim of this paper was to identify the factors that stabilise and destabilise the current transportation regime in the city, and from these to determine any factors that may affect the popularisation of cycling in Almaty. The paper analysed the city’s transportation system using the MLP approach outlined by Geels and Schot [14] as a theoretical basis for structured analysis. A narrative literature review, comparative case study, and semi-structured interview were used in combination to gather relevant data and answer the research questions of the study.

The transport system in Almaty is particularly robust against change due to the complicated way in which it is regulated and managed, largely across many varied legislative levels and involving many different actors. As well, the popularity of automobiles among the population of Almaty is reflected and reinforced in the urban planning activities which are especially car-oriented, maintaining the stability of this system. However, the increasing use of cycle delivery services and electric scooter usage demonstrate that destabilisation is possible. The government supports both of these modes of transportation and this can be built on as time goes on. The macro-level pressure placed on the system by the upcoming Strategy Plan will also help motivate and encourage a shift to more sustainable modes of transport, particularly with rising concern about public health and environmental issues

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