THE ENERGY OF SUCCESS: WHAT LIGHTS UP GREEN PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

ЭНЕРГИЯ УСПЕХА: ЧТО ОЗНАЧАЕТ ЗЕЛЕНЫЕ ПРОЕКТЫ В РАЗВИВАЮЩИХСЯ СТРАНАХ

Кожахметова Асель Кошербаевна

PhD, ассистент профессора, Казахстанско-Британский технический университет,

Казахстан, г. Алматы

Анархан Айжан Кадырлиевна

PhD кандидат Казахский национальный университет имени аль-Фараби,

Казахстан, г. Алматы

ABSTRACT

The study investigates green energy project success from the perspectives of applying project management approach. The objective of the study is to assess the relationship between project management processes and the success indicators of green energy projects in developing countries using Kazakhstan as an example. The study applies the PMPQ model to a survey of 102 professionals from four sectors – green energy, IT, communications and nuclear energy. According to the results, green energy projects experience higher budget overruns but perform relatively well in time management. Critical processes such as activity definition, duration estimation, risk, quality and communications planning were found to have a statistically significant impact on project success indicators. The results highlight the need to strengthen professional competencies in specific areas of PM knowledge to achieve the success of renewable energy projects. The results of the study can be used by project managers and practitioners from various industries to manage projects more successfully.

АННОТАЦИЯ

Исследование изучает успешность проектов в области зеленой энергетики с точки зрения применения подхода к управлению проектами. Целью исследования является оценка взаимосвязи между процессами управления проектами и показателями успешности проектов в области зеленой энергетики в развивающихся странах на примере Казахстана. Исследование применяет модель PMPQ к опросу 102 специалистов из четырех секторов: зеленой энергетики, ИТ, коммуникаций и ядерной энергетики. Согласно результатам, проекты в области зеленой энергетики испытывают более высокие перерасходы бюджета, но относительно хорошо справляются с управлением временем. Было обнаружено, что критические процессы, такие как определение деятельности, оценка продолжительности, планирование рисков, качества и коммуникаций, оказывают статистически значимое влияние на показатели успешности проекта. Результаты подчеркивают необходимость укрепления профессиональных компетенций в определенных областях знаний PM для достижения успеха проектов в области возобновляемой энергетики. Результаты исследования могут быть использованы руководителями проектов и специалистами-практиками из различных отраслей для более успешного управления проектами.

Keywords: green energy projects; project management; project success; project efficiency; Kazakhstan.

Ключевые слова: проекты зеленой энергетики; управление проектами; успешность проекта; эффективность проекта; Казахстан.

Acknowledgments

The study was carried out within the framework of funding by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. AP19579384)

Introduction

The forecasted increase in global average temperature by 1.2 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era and the adverse effects of global climate change create the need for sustainable development [1, p. 2228]. In this regard, green energy projects implemented through the production of energy from renewable sources are increasing worldwide, with investments of over US$300 billion in 2022 alone [2. р. 1888-1901]. Successful implementation of such projects helps to solve environmental, economic and social problems associated with traditional energy sources [5, р. 842].

Successful implementation of such projects allows to solve environmental, economic and social problems associated with traditional energy sources [7]. Although the impact of green energy projects on the environment and sustainable initiatives are widely known and comprehensively studied, empirical research on the effectiveness of these projects is still lacking. On the other hand, literature mentions the importance of project management approach in enhancing the success of green energy projects, but there is a lack of studies investigating its direct impact on green project success [3, р. 237]. Therefore, the study aims to evaluate how project management processes impact the success of green energy projects.

In particular, this study seeks to address three main research questions:

RQ1: What is the success rate of high-tech projects in Kazakhstan?

RQ2: What areas of knowledge in PM influence the success of high-tech projects?

RQ 3: What critical processes of PM influence the success of a project?

Literature review

Green energy projects are based on the use of energy from sources such as wind, solar, hydropower and biomass to counteract the effects of climate change and the environmental damage caused by fossil fuel consumption [6, р. 120].

Not only developed countries, but also developing countries are prioritizing green energy projects that not only reduce carbon emissions [10, p. 1049-1060], but also ensure energy security, rural development and reduced pollution, which ultimately has a positive impact on public health [4, р. 314].

In terms of project success, Samset [11] identified key indicators of project success, finding that success depends on achieving five important results as depicted in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Project success factors from Samset [11. p. 33]

According to Samset [11, p. 11-33], the key factors for project success are efficiency, effectiveness, relevance, impact and sustainability. This model is used by many organizations to find more effective approaches to achieving good project management results and ensuring long-term success. Unfortunately, the author did not explain the contribution of all these factors, describing only a quantitative assessment of efficiency and effectiveness.

Zwikael and Globerson [12, p. 688-700] created the PMPQ model to assess the relationship between the planning processes described in the standard and project success rates. They used the model to evaluate projects in various industries and confirmed the reliability of the model in assessing the impact of planning on project success. This model has been validated by other authors to measure project success [13].

This model is shown below in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Project success measurement model by Zwikael and Globerson [12]

As shown in Figure 2, the model consists of project management processes and organizational support processes that together affect project success indicators. Cost overruns, schedule overruns, project performance, and customer satisfaction were selected as project success indicators. The PMPQ index developed by the authors allows calculating the degree of use of project management processes for projects. This model was selected and modified for further analysis.

Methodology

The study was conducted using quantitative methods with subsequent regression analysis. Data was collected through a survey among project management experts. 102 respondents took part in the survey, not only from the green energy industry, but also from IT, communication and nuclear energy to compare the results among different industries.

The study design is presented below in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Research design for green energy project success evaluation

According to the research design, the independent variables were the PM processes, and the dependent variables were the project success indicators. This model assesses which knowledge area processes have the greatest impact on the success indicators of green energy projects.

The respondents who participated in the survey were asked about the use of project management processes and about the project success indicators. The intensity of the use of processes was rated from 1 to 5 on a Likert scale, where 1 is the worst result, and 5 is the best. Cost and time overruns were measured as a percentage, and customer satisfaction from 1 to 10 (from low to high) on a Likert scale. A description of the research sample is presented in Table 1.

The validity of the model was tested by Cronbach's Alpha coefficient, which showed an alpha value from 0.7 to 0.9, indicating that the selected indicators were valid and reliable (Table 1).

Table 1.

Validity test

The obtained testing results allowed us to conclude that further analysis of the relationship between variables is based on reliable and valid data.

Results and Discussion

Quantitative analysis of the relationship between the selected study variables showed the following results, presented in Table 2.

Table 2.

Research sample details

As table 2 show, green energy projects demonstrate a high level of budget overruns - 45.13%, which is the second highest indicator after nuclear projects (92%). For comparison, IT projects - only 12.2% (the most economically manageable). Despite their environmental appeal, renewable energy projects suffer from significant budget overruns, indicating weaknesses in cost estimation, planning or supply chain management. Green energy projects show weak deviations in terms of deadlines - 6.2%, inferior to the IT sector (2.8%). However, they work significantly better than сcommunication projects (8.6%) and nuclear energy (49%).

These results show that renewable energy projects are managed relatively efficiently in terms of timeframes, indicating good control over the schedule despite budgetary constraints.

The level of customer satisfaction in green energy is 7.2 out of 10, which corresponds to the level of communication projects and is somewhat behind IT (8.5). This shows customer satisfaction with the results of green projects, despite financial variances. This may be due to the reputational and environmental benefits they bring.

Table 3 shows the PM processes identified during the analysis that directly affect the efficiency of green energy projects.

Table 3.

Key processes affecting the success of a green energy projects

Table 3 contains a list of key processes from the knowledge areas of the PM that affect the success rates of a green energy project. Each area has its own tools and techniques designed for project management. The identified critical PM processes allow using a set of tools from specific knowledge areas to improve the success rates of projects. Thus, it becomes possible to develop an algorithm for managing a green energy project. All processes listed in the table 3 have a statistically significant impact on the effectiveness of green projects (PMPQ index), which is confirmed by low p-level values ​​(p < 0.05).

The results obtained show that it is necessary to ensure continuous development of professional competencies in the areas of quality, risk management and communications. This will become an important factor in increasing project maturity in the green energy sector.

Conclusion

The results of the study suggest that project management processes significantly increase the likelihood of success of green energy projects in developing countries. The projects studied demonstrated good indicators of cost management and customer satisfaction. In terms of critical processes influencing success, they listed activity definition, duration estimation, and planning related to risk, quality, and communication. These findings suggest that project success can be improved not only through technology investments, but also through improved management approaches and professional training.

The study has several limitations. Firstly, the research sample consists of 102 respondents. It may be expanded by engaging more respondents from industry. Secondly, this study is based on an example of one country. Therefore, future research may investigate other additional countries.

Overall, this study can expand the literature on green energy project management and the findings can be used by project-oriented companies to successfully complete their projects.

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