RESULTS OF THE MODERNIZATION OF THE BAIKAL-AMUR MAINLINE AND THE TRANS-SIBERIAN RAILWAY – THE RESULT OF THE CARGO FLOW REORIENTATION TO THE EAST

РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ МОДЕРНИЗАЦИИ БАГ И ТРАНССИБИРСКОЙ МАГИСТРАЛИ – ИТОГ ПЕРЕОРИЕНТАЦИИ ГРУЗОПОТОКОВ НА ВОСТОК

Беседин Андрей Дмитриевич

студент, кафедра логистика и управление транспортными системами Ростовский государственный университет путей сообщения,

РФ, г. Ростов-на-Дону

Кузьмина Дарья Вадимовна

студент, кафедра логистика и управление транспортными системами Ростовский государственный университет путей сообщения,

РФ, г. Ростов-на-Дону

ABSTRACT

This article analyzes the process of reorienting Russian export cargo flows from the Western (European) to the Eastern (Asian) direction following the geopolitical changes of 2022. It examines the current state and capacity of the Eastern Polygon — the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway. The results of the first and second stages of infrastructure modernization are summarized, and the financial constraints of the third stage of development, including EPCF contract mechanisms, are analyzed. Special attention is paid to alternative ways to improve efficiency: the transition to innovative rolling stock with an axle load of 25 tons and the electrification of the Volochayevka-Sovetskaya Gavan section. The conclusion highlights a temporary reduction in infrastructure load due to declining freight volumes and forecasts a return of capacity shortages once commodity markets recover.

АННОТАЦИЯ

В статье анализируется процесс переориентации экспортных грузопотоков Российской Федерации с западного (европейского) на восточное (азиатское) направление после геополитических изменений 2022 года. Рассматривается текущее состояние и пропускная способность Восточного полигона — Байкало-Амурской и Транссибирской магистралей. Подводятся итоги первого и второго этапов модернизации инфраструктуры, анализируются финансовые ограничения третьего этапа развития, включая механизмы EPCF-контрактов. Особое внимание уделено альтернативным путям повышения эффективности: переходу на инновационный подвижной состав с осевой нагрузкой 25 тс и электрификации участка Волочаевка — Советская Гавань. Делается вывод о временном снижении нагрузки на инфраструктуру вследствие падения погрузки и дается прогноз о возвращении дефицита мощностей при восстановлении сырьевых рынков.

Keywords: the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM), the Eastern Operating Domain, innovative gondola cars, Russia’s logistics, infrastructure modernization, cargo flow reorientation, capacity, sanctions pressure, the Trans-Siberian Railway, railway electrification, EPCF contracts.

Ключевые слова: БАМ, Восточный полигон, инновационные полувагоны, логистика РФ, модернизация инфраструктуры, переориентация грузопотоков, пропускная способность, санкционное давление, Транссиб, электрификация железных дорог, EPCF-контракты.

The geopolitical changes of recent years have dramatically transformed Russia's logistics routes. The reorientation of export and import flows from Europe to Asia has become an objective reality, with more than 50% of the country's foreign trade now being conducted with its eastern partners, primarily China. The main “bottleneck” in this shift has been the capacity of the Eastern Operating Domain, which includes the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and the Trans-Siberian Railway.

Cargo Switching Logic. After 2022, Russian exports previously focused on the Baltic Sea and Black Sea ports began shifting eastward. Coal, fertilizers, metals, timber, and containerized cargo started flowing towards the ports of the Far East. However, the infrastructure built during the Soviet era and designed for different scopes turned out to be uncapable of meeting such challenges.

The paradox is that the "turn to the East" itself was declared a strategic priority ten years before the current crisis. As Ekaterina Borisova (Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) notes in her study, the announced change in the country’s foreign policy was never backed by any adequate development of transport infrastructure, and today the country’s economic needs are growing faster than infrastructure projects are being implemented. The business community have faced a harsh reality: the capacity of the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway has been exhausted.

Modernization Timelines. The development of the Eastern Operating Domaine is being carried out in stages. In 2024, the second and most complex stage of modernization was completed. The work involved over 160 facilities, namely, second tracks were laid on hauls, bridges and tunnels were reconstructed. A key event was the breakthrough of the Dusse-Alin tunnel, which allowed for the removal of dimensional restrictions on a crucial route.

On the Trans-Baikal Railway, one of the most congested sections, the results are already tangible. At the Tarbagatai station, extended tracks for long-length trains have been installed, which has increased the section's capacity by 10 million tons. At the Skovorodino junction, an additional main track has been built, eliminating a long-standing speed restriction for transit trains. At the Tynda station, a new transit park,"T", has been launched, increasing the junction's capacity from 2,400 to 3,000 cars per day.

Thus, the second stage has created a foundation. But the main challenges lie ahead.

The third stage: ambitions and limitations. In April 2024, the government approved the third stage of the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway expansion. The goal is to increase the carrying capacity to 210 million tons by 2030 and to 270 million tons by 2033. The total cost of the project is estimated at 3.74 trillion rubles. More than 2,000 kilometers of second tracks and over 1,500 artificial structures are to be built in future.

However, implementation has faced serious financial constraints. Russian Railways' (RZD) investment program for 2025 was almost halved, from 1.5 trillion to 890 billion rubles, with the volume of construction reduced by over 400 billion rubles. This inevitably led to a delay in the completion of the projects by a year or two.

To address the problem, a new mechanism was used: EPCF contracts. VEB.RF, together with commercial banks, will allocate over 1 trillion rubles for the construction of four key facilities: the Severomuysky, Kodarsky, and Kuznetsovsky tunnels, as well as the bridge over the Amur River. The peculiarity of this scheme is that the contractor (BTS-Most) independently arranges financing, design, and construction, while Russian Railways pays for the work in installments over 10 years. This prevents overloading the monopoly's investment program.

Electrification as the main project for 2026. The largest infrastructure project of this year is the electrification of the 870-km section Volochayevka-Komsomolsk-on-Amur-Sovetskaya Gavan. This route connects the eastern part of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Baikal-Amur Mainlin with the ports of the Tatar Strait. In 2026, Russian Railways will allocate 33.8 billion rubles for the development of the Eastern Operating Domain, the majority of funds specifically allocated for electrification.

To date, over 24,000 catenary supports (contact network poles have been installed, and equipment has been mounted at 6 traction substations.  The electrification of the section to Komsomolsk is planned to be completed in 2026 The transition to electric traction for the section up to Komsomolsk is planned for 2026, and the transition to electric traction for the section to Sovetskaya Gavan in 2027. Electrification will increase the capacity of the challenging mountainous section (the route crosses the Sikhote-Alin range) and reduce operating costs.

Innovative rolling stock: traveling more notoftener, When expanding infrastructure requires time and huge investments, the market finds another way, i.e. increasing the efficiency of the rolling stock itself. The logic is simple: if a train can carry more cargo, then with the same number of trains, the scope of transportation grows.

This is exactly what the transition to innovative gondola cars with an axial load of 25 tons is aimed at.  The State Duma has proposed limiting the operation of "low-efficiency" cars (with a load of 23.5 tons) starting in 2026, replacing them with a new generation of cars. Estimates suggest that this will allow for the use of 7.2 thousand fewer cars per month on the Eastern Operating Domain, while maintaining the same scope of transportation.

Industry is already responding to the demand. Since February 2026, the Tikhvin Freight Car Building Plant has launched serial production of the 77-ton gondola car model 12-6744. By reducing the tare weight by 2 tons and increasing the body volume to 94 m³, a train of such cars can carry 550 tons more cargo than a traditional fleet. In the congested conditions of the Eastern Operating Domain, this translates into a real increase in output without increasing the number of trains.

The new reality: a drop in loading as a temporary respite. There is another factor that paradoxically reduces the severity of the infrastructure problem. Freight loading on the Russian Railways network is falling. In 2024, the decline was over 4%, and in January-May 2025, the drop intensified to 7.3%. Construction materials, scrap metal, grain, and cement have been hit hardest. Even coal, the traditional driver of the eastern direction, has shown a decline.

This means that the actual scope of transportation through the key sections of the Eastern Operating Domain in 2024 was about 156 million tons compared to the nominal capacity of 180 million tons after the completion of the second stage. The infrastructure deficit has temporarily become less acute.

However, as experts warn, we should stay cautious. If commodity markets and economic activity recover by 2027-2028, constraints will return, and the postponement of the third stage could create serious "bottlenecks."

Conclusions. The development of the Eastern Operating Domain is a marathon, not a sprint. The third stage is designed to last until 2032-2033. The results so far can be summarized as follows:

• Infrastructure lags behind demand, but work is ongoing — dozens of new tracks have been laid, junctions have been reconstructed, and tunnels have been drilled.
• Financing remains the main constraint: the reduction of Russian Railways' investment program necessitates new mechanisms (EPCF contracts, concessions).
• The technological response — the transition to innovative rolling stock allows increasing transportation without expanding track infrastructure.
• The macroeconomic situation (declining freight loads) provides a temporary respite but does not eliminate the need for modernization.

In the strategic perspective, the Eastern Operating Domain will remain the main artery of Russian foreign trade. And the competitiveness of all Russian exports in Asian markets depends on how successfully its “bottlenecks” are "widened".

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