RESEARCH ON INFLUENCING FACTORS AND OPTIMIZATION PATHS OF CHINA-RUSSIA CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE DEVELOPMENT AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS

ABSTRACT

Amid geopolitical conflicts, China-Russia cross-border e-commerce has grown against the trend, forming a policy-coordinated, diversified and complementary model as a key trade driver. With strong policy support and great potential, it still faces structural contradictions from weak institutional links and unbalanced resources. This paper proposes a trinity strategy—connectivity, finance, local cultivation—to advance high-quality development and trade expansion.

Keywords: Wartime Economy; China-Russia Cross-Border E-Commerce; Influencing Factors and Optimization Paths; Logistics and Customs Clearance Optimization; Local Operation Enhancement.

In November 2025, the Joint Communiqué of the 30th Regular Meeting of the Chinese and Russian Prime Ministers explicitly identified cross-border e-commerce as a key area of bilateral economic and trade cooperation. It proposed leveraging artificial intelligence and the digital economy as enabling tools, and adopting multiple measures such as policy alignment, industrial docking and local collaboration to build a market opening pattern that emphasizes both "bringing in" and "going global" [1].This top-level design has laid an institutional foundation for China-Russia cross-border e-commerce to break through traditional trade bottlenecks and achieve digital transformation. From a practical perspective, since 2014, the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts has triggered the restructuring of the global trade landscape. Western countries have imposed multiple rounds of economic sanctions on Russia, forcing Russia to accelerate its pivot toward the Asian market. As the world’s largest manufacturing base and e-commerce market, China has formed strong demands for market complementarity and supply chain coordination with Russia. Against this backdrop, relying on its efficient and flexible transaction models and digital operation systems, China-Russia cross-border e-commerce has effectively circumvented tariff barriers and logistics constraints in traditional trade, emerging as a key carrier for stabilizing growth and improving quality and efficiency in bilateral economic and trade cooperation.

Scholars at home and abroad have conducted extensive discussions on the development mechanisms and regional impacts of cross-border e-commerce. Li Kaihuai argues that by reducing information asymmetry and simplifying trade procedures, cross-border e-commerce has become a core engine for the high-quality transformation of China’s foreign trade, and its digital characteristics and industrial integration capabilities have significantly enhanced the resilience of foreign trade^[2,p52]. From the perspective of platform evolution, Peng Qianqian emphasizes that the digital iteration of cross-border e-commerce has not only optimized transaction efficiency, but also reconstructed the division of labor system of the global value chain, emerging as a core driving force for the development of digital trade [3, p. 81]. At the level of regional trade agreements, Liao Rundong and Chai Yuxi take the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as their basic research perspective and propose the dual impacts of regional trade policies on cross-border e-commerce: on the one hand, such policies drive the digital transformation of the industry by reducing trade costs and simplifying customs clearance procedures; on the other hand, they also exacerbate structural contradictions such as differences in trade rules and local operation requirements [4, p. 67]. In studies focusing on China-Russia cross-border e-commerce, Ding Chao emphasizes that digital services trade has become a new growth engine for China-Russia foreign trade, and cross-border e-commerce has achieved rapid development under the empowerment of technology. However, it still faces multiple challenges, such as discrepancies in trade rules, inadequate alignment of regulatory systems and insufficient efficiency of cross-border logistics [5, p. 94].

Based on a synthesis of existing studies, current academic explorations exhibit two prominent gaps: first, there is insufficient contextual adaptability, as systematic analyses of the special economic patterns against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts are lacking. Most existing studies are conducted under the framework of conventional trade environments, with inadequate discussions on the interaction mechanism between institutional factors and micro-level operations; second, proposed countermeasures lack feasibility, as most of the existing suggestions focus on a single dimension, with insufficient research on the bilateral institutional characteristics and resource endowment features of China and Russia.The potential marginal contribution of this paper lies in providing practical support for the high-quality development of China-Russia cross-border e-commerce.

1. Core Restrictive Factors for the Development of China-Russia Cross-Border E-Commerce

1.1 Lagging Infrastructure Interconnection and Insufficient Efficiency of Logistics and Customs Clearance

The level of infrastructure construction and modernization constitutes a core bottleneck restricting the scale expansion of China-Russia cross-border e-commerce. In terms of railway transportation, the railway network density in Russia’s Far East is only 18 kilometers per 10,000 square kilometers, equivalent to a mere 35% of Russia’s national average. The Trans-Siberian Railway has long been plagued by capacity constraints, which hinders the integration of interregional industrial and supply chains. In the field of highway transportation, the total mileage of expressways in Russia’s Far East stands at 126,000 kilometers, accounting for only 8.2% of the country’s total. A high-grade highway network connecting core ports and urban agglomerations has not yet been formed, resulting in low efficiency of land transportation [6, p. 43]. Problems in the customs clearance link are even more prominent: the customs clearance procedures between China and Russia are cumbersome and time-consuming, coupled with issues such as inconsistent inspection standards and inadequate information sharing, which seriously affect the efficiency of commodity circulation and consumer experience.

1.2 Prominent Financial and Fiscal Constraints and High Risks in Payment and Settlement

Poor alignment between financial systems and insufficient fiscal input constitute important constraints on the development of cross-border e-commerce. In terms of exchange rate fluctuations, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the Chinese yuan depreciated by as much as 9.43% in 2025 compared with 2024. Although some platforms have launched pilot programs for RMB pricing and digital ruble settlement, small and medium-sized sellers lack professional hedging tools and still face significant risks of settlement losses. In the payment system dimension, China-Russia cross-border payments are still plagued by problems such as limited clearing channels, high handling fees and long fund arrival cycles. Some small and medium-sized payment institutions have not yet connected to Russia’s mainstream clearing systems, resulting in low payment and settlement efficiency and further exacerbating transaction risks.

1.3 Inadequate Localized Operation Capabilities and Obstacles in Cultural Adaptation

Differences between China and Russia in terms of language, culture and consumption habits impose high requirements on the localized operations of enterprises. However, some Chinese sellers lack corresponding capacity reserves, which has become a key factor affecting transaction conversion. In terms of language communication, inaccurate Russian translations—even grammatical errors—in product descriptions and marketing copy have led to consumer cognitive biases. At the cultural adaptation level, some product designs and marketing campaigns have not fully taken into account Russia’s cultural customs and religious taboos, triggering consumer resistance. In after-sales service, most Chinese sellers lack Russian-speaking customer service teams, resulting in delayed responses. The return and exchange processes are not in line with Russian market practices, making it difficult for consumers to safeguard their rights and interests. There is also a prominent gap in talent supply: interdisciplinary talents who possess both professional Russian language proficiency and knowledge of e-commerce operations and cross-border logistics are in short supply, which restricts the improvement of enterprises’ localized operation capabilities.

2. Optimization Paths for the High-Quality Development of China-Russia Cross-Border E-Commerce

2.1 Improve Infrastructure Construction and Build an Efficient Logistics and Customs Clearance System

First, strengthen the coordinated construction of China-Russia logistics corridors, deepen the linkage and cooperation between the China-Europe Railway Express and cross-border e-commerce, launch China-Russia Cross-Border E-Commerce Special Trains, and establish a regular scheduling mechanism to increase railway transportation capacity. Learn fully from the operation mode and experience of the China-Europe Railway Express (Xi'an-Moscow), promote the centralized declaration mode of "manifest consolidation" at railway ports, and minimize the time required for interregional commodity circulation, transportation and customs clearance between China and Russia. Second, advance the construction of a "Land-Sea Grand Corridor" connecting core ports and cities including Suifenhe and Heihe in Heilongjiang Province, Hunchun in Jilin Province, and the southeast coastal areas of Liaoning Province with major urban agglomerations in Russia’s Far East. Third, encourage local universities, research institutions and logistics enterprises of China and Russia to form industry-university-research strategic alliances, integrate transportation resources, provide door-to-door integrated transportation services, and reduce logistics costs.

2.2 Innovate the Payment and Settlement System to Alleviate Financial and Fiscal Constraints

First, strengthen the prevention and control of exchange rate risks. Promote the combined application of financial derivatives such as forward exchange settlement to help cross-border e-commerce operators hedge against the risks of ruble exchange rate fluctuations. Second, expand the scope of cross-border settlement pilot programs for the RMB and digital ruble, support mainstream e-commerce platforms in optimizing their pricing mechanisms, add automatic adjustment thresholds for exchange rate fluctuations, and shorten the settlement cycle. At the same time, strengthen financial regulatory cooperation between China and Russia, regulate the operations of cross-border payment institutions, expand clearing channels, and reduce payment handling fees.

Third, broaden the channels for capital investment. Establish a China-Russia cross-border e-commerce joint development fund, introduce multilateral capital from institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Development Bank, and focus investment on the construction of infrastructure including logistics hubs and overseas warehouses. Implement fiscal incentive policies, provide special logistics subsidies and tax cuts and fee reductions for enterprises settling in cross-border e-commerce industrial parks, and reduce their operational costs.

2.3 Strengthen Enterprises' Localized Operation Capabilities and Enhance Market Adaptability

First, promote the localization of language and content. Build a bilingual content review and optimization platform to provide services accurate rewriting of Russian product copy and cultural taboo screening, and implement a native Russian speaker review mechanism to ensure that product descriptions conform to the cognitive habits of Russian consumers. Second, cultivate localized operation capabilities. Carry out special training relying on China-Russia cross-border e-commerce industrial parks and industry associations, covering topics such as the characteristics of Russian online consumption behavior, marketing nodes, and laws and regulations, so as to improve the level of localized operations of enterprises. Among these initiatives, deepen cooperation between universities and enterprises, launch interdisciplinary programs such as "Russian Language + E-commerce Operations" and "Russian Language + Cross-border Logistics", conduct targeted training of localized talents, and alleviate the long-term shortage in the effective supply of professional talents. Third, improve the localized after-sales fulfillment system. Encourage Chinese local e-commerce platforms to cooperate with Russian local logistics enterprises and service providers, deploy after-sales outlets in overseas warehouses, establish return and exchange processes that comply with local standards, and enhance consumer experience. Standardize after-sales service standards, clarify key indicators such as after-sales response time and repair, return and exchange periods, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers.

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