SPECULATIONS ON THE RUSSIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: THE MECHANISM OF OCCURRENCE AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

ABSTRACT

The article gives the interpretation of the concepts of speculation, the history of the origin of this term, the types and functions are indicated. The meaning of speculation in the economy and the methods of its conditional management are also spelled out. The article reflects the factors that contributed to the appearance of speculation. The article presents the practice of implementation and visible consequences of the functioning of speculative operations on the example of the foreign exchange market in the Russian Federation.

Keywords: speculation, currency speculators, stock exchange speculators, consequences of speculative operations, resellers, intermediaries, transactions.

For a large amount of time, the significance of speculative operations was perceived through the formed theories of the classics – the emphasis is placed on the forces that ensure the self-regulation of the economy in a short period. When applying this statement to financial markets, it is concluded that they do have some mechanisms for returning to an equilibrium state when a negative impact occurs. It is also worth noting that speculation itself and its direct role in the economy have not yet been fully studied. And the most extensive study of this concept was carried out by various scientists and economists from all countries. For example, speculation is described in the textbooks of such authors as R. M. Nureyev, A. A. Koptyaeva, V. V. Kovaleva, and so on. The foreign economist Jesse Russell also devoted a separate book to the question of speculation. The most interesting studies of speculative processes in the Russian Federation are considered in the articles of Borovikova E. S., Katasonov V. Yu. and many other scientists.

Initially, the very concept of "speculation" appeared in Holland in 1562 and was closely associated with the supply and sale of tulips. And John Law was the first speculator. He, using advertising and rumors, created schemes to increase profits fraudulently.

In the modern dictionary of foreign words, the term "speculation" means [2]:

1) buying up various goods and further reselling them at high prices for profit;

2) purchase and sale of exchange values (bonds, shares, promissory notes, etc.) aimed at obtaining speculative profit from the difference in the purchase and sale price when reselling these values;

3) a calculation based on something, intent to use something for selfish purposes.

The concept of speculation in economic science is interpreted as the extraction of profits and through the use of price differences over time. In the XV-I-XVII centuries. the first school in political economy, or to be more precise, the mercantilists gave the concept of speculation as "to buy cheaper, to give – more expensive". And "money-commodity-money" (D-T-D) is the universal formula of capital. So the rarity of speculation is precisely the fact that market participants often look for a way with the least risk, at the same time as themselves and speculators intentionally take this risk [1].

Speculators are in various markets: securities, metals, agricultural goods, real estate, foreign exchange, and many others. And one of the most famous places where speculators are currently located is the stock exchanges.

"Speculator" is one of the significant subjects of market relations. This is a person who, for the purpose of extracting profits and by buying or selling futures contracts, always seeks to anticipate price fluctuations. It is worth distinguishing between a "black market" speculator and a speculator, and in a civilized market. And also different from each other are the speculators at the stage of market development and the speculator of the mature market. So in the first version, it is almost no different from a simple extortionist and a crook, and in the second-it goes to a proofreader, and normal market relations, which usually uses the difference in prices caused by the difference in production costs. Speculators are not interested in the implementation and acceptance of the delivery of a particular product that vara. The sale of goods "from under the counter" by the store manager at inflated prices is a real economic crime [3].

There are a number of factors that contribute to the appearance of speculation [5]:

1. Causes of inflation there is a devaluation of money, because of which the percentage of poor people increases and, yes, sufficiently well-off people become poor.

2. The speculator can successfully, almost for nothing, give his own to var, depending on the time and current conditions in the country. So, for example, during the Great Patriotic War, jewelry, works of art by great artists and other expensive goods were sold and bought for very small and delicate amounts.

3. With the unstable political situation in the country, the defect of the legislative framework and the weak work of law enforcement agencies, the population of the country is forced to withdraw from long-term investments. Citizens will be ready to purchase securities, real estate, precious metals and other valuable goods. And in such an environment, speculators who offer their services are actively engaged. In developed market relations, the speculator helps to establish the necessary proportions between the level of the price of the commodity mass and the effective demand of society.

The speculative functions are as follows [7]:

- make it much easier to buy and sell various assets (enterprise property);

- acts as insurance for the transaction-regulates disputes between sellers and buyers.

There are two types of speculators: stock exchange and currency speculators. At the same time, stock speculators are divided into "bulls" and "bears". "Bulls" are those who buy up the talk during the period of increasing prices, in order to sell for the highest value, play to increase prices on the stock exchanges. Bears, on the other hand, sell contracts to buy them later at a lower price. But the purpose of these two types of resellers is to make a profit, however, in completely different ways. This division is not only relative, but also unstable. Any broker operating on the stock exchange, in one case, can be a "bull", in another-a "bear" [8].

Successful operations require two conditions [3]:

- price analysis and forecast;

- the ability to effectively manage the funds allocated for the operation.

And for successful speculative trading, a trader must:

- specialize in any securities;

- limit the number of simultaneous operations performed by the trader (the number of simultaneous operations is set taking into account the time that the trader can devote to speculative activities).

Speculators play an important role in the economy [5]:

- perform the function of intermediaries (deliver goods and services from those who have a surplus to those who need them badly);

- helps to find the right proportions between the level of value of the mass of goods and the effective demand of society;

- has an impact on the growth of market liquidity;

- provides comparative market stability;

- helps to smooth out the difference between the cost of similar products in markets that differ in different places;

- seasonal price fluctuations are leveled thanks to speculators;

- act as a reseller (taking some types of risks on themselves, makes it real to conclude a transaction with a market participant who does not pursue the goal of engaging in speculation, but, on the contrary, wants to insure against legal claims) and more.

Based on all of the above, we can conclude that speculation is a very important part of the market economy, which objectively contributes to a more flexible functioning of the market mechanism. In many respects, it is due to futures transactions that the turnover on the stock exchanges increases, and the market process becomes more dynamic. Speculation also contributes to stabilization. And if there were no resellers in the markets, but only sellers and buyers, then the markets would constantly change and be unstable, compared to those where there are speculators.

References:

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